A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
